prediction claim
The speaker thinks the depicted timeline could take 18 months rather than six months.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“250 years of sort of serial time for the ais uh which to me feels like more than enough to like really like sort out this sort of stuff like you'll have time for like sort of like empires to rise and fall so to speak and like all of that to be like added to the chaining data and like yeah um but i could see it taking longer than we depict like you know maybe instead of six months it'll be like 18 months you know”Play from 47:16Report a misattribution
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65%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly