Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 15 Oct 2026
prediction claim

The authors hope that war games, detailed scenario writing, and criticism will reveal unrealistic or poorly modeled parts of their scenarios and help them correct their thinking.

Thomas Larsen · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“you know, that's sort of the hope with sort of our like we ourselves do a bunch of war games, but also do a bunch of sort of detailed scenario writing. Our hope is that every time we have to write a part of the scenario and the part of that scenario seems super unrealistic or.”
“you know isn't really well modeled and doesn't really make sense or people are able to make really good criticisms of it online that's basically reality yelling at us and trying to like help us see reason and our hope is that we can sort of like do enough of this sort of put up enough surface area so that we can sort of get that you know dose of reality from from the real world or from the simulation of the real world which we hope is realistic enough to sort of accurately give us that information”
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