prediction claim
The speaker believes solving visual-intelligence problems, including video-related problems, within three or four years would be very lucky.
Tim Scarfe · Three Red Lines We're About to Cross Toward AGI (Daniel Kokotajlo, Gary Marcus, Dan Hendrycks) · 24 Jun 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“the kinds of numbers that you gave were like three or four for this one three or four for that one and i think like really you know my estimate is really 10 years is most of the distribution is past 10 years it's because i see several problems that like we'd be really lucky if we told let's say the visual intelligence problems in three or four years we'd be really lucky if we solved the um the video kind of”
“visual intelligence over time let's call it problems in three or four years. I just see too many problems, too many gaps to use your phrase to think we'd get all of those at once like it in the movie everywhere every what is it everything everywhere all at once.”Play from 1:26:48Report a misattribution
80%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
91%confidence the claim was read correctly