opinion claim
Thomas Larsen says real-world developments have followed the AI 2027 scenario more closely than he expected at its release.
Thomas Larsen · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“The thing I would add on the epistemic point is that I think things have been going more on track for AI 2027 than I would have predicted at the time we released it.”Play from 4:44Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
80%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly