Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 20 Oct 2026
prediction claim

The process of AI organizational development could take 18 months rather than the depicted six months.

Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“250 years of sort of serial time for the ais uh which to me feels like more than enough to like really like sort out this sort of stuff like you'll have time for like sort of like empires to rise and fall so to speak and like all of that to be like added to the chaining data and like yeah um but i could see it taking longer than we depict like you know maybe instead of six months it'll be like 18 months you know”
Play from 47:16Report a misattribution
55%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
72%importance to the conversation
96%confidence the claim was read correctly