descriptive claim
At the time of the conversation, Metaculus's timeline of 2030 was only slightly in the future.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“Now it's at 2030,”
“so it's barely ahead of us.”Play from 13:18Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
55%importance to the conversation
95%confidence the claim was read correctly