descriptive claim
The number of readers AI 2027 received was a 90th-percentile outcome relative to the team's prior predictions.
Daniel Kokotajlo · AI 2040: Plan A report - Daniel Kokotajlo & Thomas Larsen · 8 Sept 2026
In their words
The transcript segments this claim was taken from
“We made predictions beforehand about how many people would read it and it was 90th percentile outcome.”Play from 4:38Report a misattribution
100%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
50%importance to the conversation
95%confidence the claim was read correctly