opinion claim
Daniel Kokotajlo argues that assuming nothing will ever happen has been an especially consistently wrong default prediction.
Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025
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“And I think that that has been the most consistently wrong prediction of all.”Play from 28:10Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly