Savlar4 sources healthy · latest episode 20 Oct 2026
opinion claim

Daniel Kokotajlo argues that assuming nothing will ever happen has been an especially consistently wrong default prediction.

Scott Alexander · AI 2027: month-by-month model of intelligence explosion — Scott Alexander & Daniel Kokotajlo · 3 Apr 2025

In their words

The transcript segments this claim was taken from

“And I think that that has been the most consistently wrong prediction of all.”
Play from 28:10Report a misattribution
90%how strongly it was put, not whether it is true
70%importance to the conversation
98%confidence the claim was read correctly